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THE SOLAR ENERGY OUTLOOK FOR 2013
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Based on an article published on Renewable Energy World.com By Vince Font

With 2013 poised to pounce, now’s the time for all forward thinking solar proponents to peer into that proverbial crystal ball to see what the new year holds in store. What will 2013 look like for global solar initiatives? How will this impact the creation of jobs? Here’s what some of the experts have to say about the outlook for the coming year.

Low Cost Solar PV Will Lead to Increased Development and More Jobs

As a result of the oversupply of solar PV panels in 2011 and 2012, costs were driven down significantly. This spelled bad news for solar PV manufacturers seeking to make decent returns or any returns at all, but led to increased opportunities for downstream providers to pursue large-scale solar developments, both within the major global markets and also developing countries that previously weren’t able to afford it.

With respect to the plummeting cost of solar panels, Kreamer says he doesn’t expect prices to continue to drop in 2013 as rapidly as they did in the last two years. “Over the long-term,” Kreamer said, “like other semi-conductor industries, we expect solar module cost to decline and efficiency to increase. Since modules today account for less than 20 percent of a solar system’s cost, solar generation competitiveness gains are likely to come from other parts of the cost structure, such as customer acquisition and permitting.”

Shah adds that most developers today are “not looking for price reductions,” citing significantly lowered costs as the primary reason. “The difference between getting a 70 cent a watt module and a 65 cent a watt module is just not that big of a deal anymore for system costs,” Shah said. “People are now looking at non price features for making decision on who to buy from.”

Little Impact Predicted from U.S. / Chinese Solar Cell Tariffs

The recently published U.S. Solar Market Insight Report, which was released by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and GTM Research, states that the impact of tariffs imposed against Chinese solar manufacturer providers will be minimal, as they only apply to panels using Chinese manufactured solar cells — something that can be easily circumvented.

According to Shah, Chinese solar manufacturers will be virtually unaffected by the tariffs because of a pre-existing diversity in their solar product lines. “Today, the Chinese already diversify by using Taiwanese cells,” Shah explained, “so they’re just sending those Taiwanese cell modules to the U.S. instead.”

The SEIA report claims that “tariffs will not have a material impact on pricing in the U.S.” and goes on to explain that Taiwanese-obtained solar cells will come with a cost impact of less than $0.10 per watt.

Consolidation and Specialization Will Emerge in 2013

Although the industry has already begun to show signs of consolidation by way of numerous bankruptcies and the absorption of assets by larger solar companies, Kreamer sees this as a trend that’s likely to increase into 2013. He also predicts fewer all-in-one corporations and a more widespread distribution of supply chain services.

Saudi Arabia Makes Inroads to Solar Dominance

According to Marc Norman, lawyer for Chadbourne & Park LLP and director of the Emirates Solar Industry Association (ESIA), the official launch of Saudi Arabia’s plan to procure 54,000 MW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 is due to take place in the second quarter of 2013. The first step will be an introductory procurement round for up to 600 MW of solar power facilities and 100 MW of wind power.

Emerging Markets Will Bring Global Solar Industry Stability

The recently released IHS Solar Emerging Markets Study predicts that emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle-East, Africa and “emerging Europe” will help strengthen the solar industry, beginning in 2013. The report indicates that up to 30 GW of PV capacity will be added throughout various emerging markets in the next four years, helping to stabilize an industry that’s steeling itself against the elimination of critical incentives in several European markets. It says that 2.1 to 3.5 GW of new PV capacity will be added in 2013 alone.

Based on an article published on Renewable Energy World.com By Vince Font